潮涌现象与政府在产业结构变迁中的作用:以港台为例

Wave Phenomenon and the Role of the Government in the Change of Industrial Structure:The Cases of Hong Kong and Taiwan

本文根据政府是否主导产业结构变迁将其划分为诱致性变迁和强制性变迁,并提出发展中经济更适于采取强制性变迁。这是因为发展中经济如果采取诱致性变迁,往往会导致"潮涌现象",而政府主导的强制性变迁则能够顺利促进产业升级。港台两地二战以来的产业结构变迁为上述观点提供了有力的支撑。

The paper studies the change of industrial structure, and differentiates it into tow forms, the imposed change and the induced change, We argue that it is better for the developing economy to choose the form imposed change, because it is easy to form a consensus about the next promising industry among the firms in the developing economy, which may leads to a wave phenomenon in the form of induced change, and the government can promote industrial upgrade successfully by choosing the form of imposed change. The experiences of Hong Kong and Taiwan after World War Ⅱ provide powerful support for our opinion.