不断强化的俄罗斯对欧洲天然气外交

Russia's intensifying natural gas diplomacy with Europe

2007年底以来,俄罗斯分别与意大利、荷兰、法国就"南流"(South Stream)项目实施、"北流("North Stream)项目股权调整和扩大俄法天然气合作达成协议;与哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦政府就修建"沿里海天然气管道"达成政府间协议;与奥地利签署合作协议,获得了"中欧天然气枢纽"中心50%的份额,还分别与保加利亚、塞尔维亚、匈牙利签署"南流"项目过境管道建设协议,基本完成了该项目的过境谈判工作。俄罗斯在对欧洲天然气外交上频频出手,其目的是在与美欧的多边博弈中赢得先机,实现政治、经济双赢的目标:扩大对乌克兰、白俄罗斯外交的弹性空间;架空美欧主导的从中亚输气的"跨里海天然气管道"项目;分化欧盟"统一对俄政策";提升俄在巴尔干能源格局中的优势地位和传统影响力,在科索沃问题上为塞尔维亚"撑腰"。随着俄罗斯对欧洲输气管道项目的实施和供气量的大幅提高,俄必然努力在中亚获得更多的"气源",因此,将使中土和中俄天然气管线的"气源"保障面临一定的挑战。

Since the yearend of 2007, Russia has respectively wrapped up the agreements on the implementation of the South Stream Project, the equity adjustment for the North Stream Project and expanded Russian-French natural gas cooperation with Italy, Holland and France; signed the intergovernmental agreements on the construction of the natural gas pipeline along Caspian Sea with the Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan governments; entered into the agreement with Austria and obtained a 50% share in the Central Europe natural gas pivot center; and concluded the agreements on the construction of the transit pipelines for the South Stream Project with Bulgaria, Serbia and Austria, and has basically completed the transit negotiation work for the project. With the frequent diplomatic actions taken with Europe, Russia expects to win a proactive position in the multilateral gaming with America and Europe and realize the political and economic objectives, that is, to enlarge the diplomatic leeway on Ukraine and Belarus, to spoil the Trans-Caspian natural gas pipeline project led by America and Europe, disintegrate the uniform policy with Russia of the European Union, enhance the advantaged position and traditional influence in the Balkan energy pattern, and back up Serbia on the Kosovo issue. With the implementation of the Europe-bound natural gas transmission pipeline project and the sharp rise in the gas supply, Russia is definite to obtain more gas sources in the Middle Asia with great efforts, which will pose a certain challenge on the guarantee of the gas sources for the natural gas pipelines between China and Russia and Turkmenistan.