2007年中国石油进出口状况分析

Analysis of China's oil import and export in 2007

2007年,中国国内生产总值(GDP)增长11.4%,为过去13年来增长最快的一年。石油净进口量达到创纪录的1.835亿吨,石油进口依存度达到49.85%。原油净进口量达到1.594亿吨,同比增长14.8%。2007年,国际成品油市场的高价格刺激了国内油品出口,并使燃料油进口量缩减13.7%,降到2412万吨。2007年秋季的"油荒"使中国石油、中国石化两大集团不惜亏本大量进口柴油和汽油,以解国内市场"燃眉之急"。受国际市场价格持续走高、国内炼厂增产和液化天然气等替代燃料发展的影响,2007年中国液化石油气净进口量继续下降,降幅达28.6%,由上年的521万吨降到372万吨,进口量萎缩到10年前的水平。预计2008年中国GDP增长可能仍高达10%或更高,油品需求保持旺盛增长,石油净进口量预计达2亿吨左右。国际油价空前高涨和国内通货膨胀风险可能继续阻碍中国成品油定价机制改革的实行。

In 2007, China's GDP growth reached up to 11.4%, a 13- year high. At the same time, the net import of oil reached a record high of 183.5 million tons, taking the degree of dependence on oil import to 49.85%. The net import of crude oil grew 14.8% year on year to 159.4 million tons in the same year. In 2007, the high price in the international refined oil market stimulated the oil export by the domestic oil companies, and led to the sharp decrease of the fuel oil import, which declined 13.7% year on year to 24.12 million tons. The 'oil famine' in the fall of 2007 forced China National Petroleum Corporation and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, the Major oil groups in the nation, to import a large quantity of diesel oil and gasoline even at a loss to satisfy the urgent demand in the domestic demand. In 2007, China's net import of liquefied petroleum gas continued to decline with a year- on-year fall of 28.6%, affected by the escalating price in the international oil market, the increased production at domestic refineries and the development of substitute fuels, including liquefied natural gas. The net import of liquefied petroleum gas plummeted to 3.72 million tons in 2007 from the 5.21 million tons in the previous year, and contracted to the level ten years ago. Stimulated by the sanguine expectation of China's GDP growth in 2008, estimated to hit 10% and even higher, the demand for oil is forecasted to remain strong with the net oil import divined to further jump to 200 million tons. The unprecedented high international oil price and the domestic inflation risks may continue preventing the implementation of the refined oil pricing mechanism reform.