基于混合先验分布的导弹武器系统飞行可靠性评估

Assessment of Missile Fight Reliability Based on Mixed Prior Distribution

在小子样情况下，把导弹武器系统各个分系统的试验信息折合为现场试验信息，然后综合利用各种信息（地面试验信息，不同阶段的试验信息等），运用基于专家系统确定权重区间的分层Bayes方法，对导弹武器系统的飞行可靠性进行评定。算例表明，该方法比直接提供权重估计的方法更稳健，可信度也更高。

Under the condition of small sample, the ground test data of missile subsystems are converted into the current information of systems. A variety of data are integrated and utilized, including the ground test data of the subsystems and the historical test information. Confirming the interval of weight based on expert system, the hierarchical Bayesian method, which is more robust and more credible than the method calculating weight directly, is used to estimate the flight reliability of missile. Finally, the feasibility and robustness of this method is illustrated.