湖北省粮食总产气象预报模型

Study on Meteorological Forecasting Model for Total Grain Production in Hubei Province

为探讨湖北省粮食总产气象预报模型,选用高空大气环流资料、地面气象资料和统计局历年产量资料,从全年粮食总产量的构成进行分析,提出并比较了4种粮食总产气象预报模型。预报模型采用线性或非线性方程进行模拟。从理论和实际两方面分析了每种模型的可行性。通过2 a的试运行和2006年的实际应用,效果很好,3 a来,此模型对湖北省粮食产量预测预报的准确率达98.1%-99.3%。确定用＂分组模型＂的方法建立湖北省粮食产量气象预报模型。

In order to probe meteorological forecasting models for total grain production,data of atmospheric circumfluence in the upper air,ground meteorological data and annual yield of grain production from Statistical Bureau of Hubei have been collected.The structure composing annual total grain production was analyzed.Four meteorological forecasting models of total grain production were proposed and compared in this paper.Using linear and non-linear equations,the forecasting models were simulated.Every model was analyzed from the perspective of both theory and realistic feasibility.Through two annual work tests and practical application of 2006,this model proved to be effective.In the last there years,the accurate rates of Hubei total grain production forecasting by this model can reach up to 98.1% to 99.3%.The method of ＂grouping models＂ was selected to build meteorological forecasting models of total grain production in Hubei Province.