T_(213)预报产品对新疆天山北坡带中部大降水解释检验分析

Analysis on Explanation and Verifying on Heavy Rainfall Forecast by Using the Forecast Products of T_(213) in the North-piedmont of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang

采用2002-2006年春季至秋季逐日的T21348 h预报产品及新疆天山北坡带中部测站的逐日地面降水量资料,分析T213预报产品对新疆天山北坡带中部大降水天气的预报能力。结果表明：T21348 h的高度、温度、气压、涡度、散度、垂直速度场、风场、流场,比湿、水汽通量、水汽通量散度、相对湿度、温度露点差场,@Se指数预报量与石河子垦区大降水天气物理意义明确,相关程度在79%以上,对48 h内大降水天气有较强的预报能力;风场、流场、水汽通量散度场、“Ω”型@Se高能舌预报值在时效上超前大降水,是大降水来临的预兆。

Daily 48 h forecast product of T213 from spring to autumnin in 2002～2006 and the daily ground rainfall data from all observation stations in the North-piedmont of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang were used to analyze and verify the ability of forecast product of T213 in forecasting the heavy rainfall in north part of Tianshan Mountain in Xinjiang.The results show that the forecast indices such as the height field,temperate field,pressure field,vorticity,divergence,vertical speed field,wind field,flow field,specific humidity,vapour convergence and its divergence,relative humidity,temperate dew-point difference field,@Se index forecast within 48 h had close correlation with the heavy rainfall weather in Shihezi reclamation area,with correlation of more than 79%,which had strong forecasting ability for the heavy rainfall weather within 48 h.The forecast indices of wind field,flow field flow field, vapour convergence divergence field and theΩ type @Se high energy tongue could forecast advance heavy rainfall,which were the signs of heavy rainfall coming.was the forecast indices of heavy rainfall.