舰载多功能火箭武器研制技术风险的灰色聚类决策

Technical Risk Analysis of Ship-borne Multiple Function Rocket Launcher Based on Gray Cluster Decision

舰载多功能火箭武器系统的研制是一个复杂的系统工程,在研制过程中存在多种非确定因素及风险因素。由于技术风险的评价指标和属性值难以确定和定量化,使得技术风险分析和评估成为武器研制风险管理的瓶颈。针对技术风险的灰色性和难以量化性,提出一种结合层次分析法(AHP)和灰色聚类决策的武器研制方案技术风险综合评估方法,并利用该模型对舰载多功能火箭武器3种总体研制方案的技术风险进行了分析和评估,评估结果将为该武器系统总体研制方案的选取提供一定的决策支持。

The development of ship-borne multiple function rocket launcher is a complicated system engineering. As it is difficult to quantitate evaluating index and attributive value, the analysis and evaluation of technical risk become the bottle-neck in the risk management of weapon development program. Aiming at grey property of technical risk, we proposed an integrative evaluation method of grey clustering evaluation combined with analytic hierarchy process （AHP） for technical risk of weapon development. Technical risk analysis for three overall schemes of ship-borne multiple function rocket launcher was taken as an example, risk grades of every subsystem were analyzed first, then technical risks of three overall schemes were sorted. The evaluating result would provide some decision support for the choosing of overall schemes of the weapon system.