黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域农业生态安全预警分析

Pre-warning analysis of agricultural ecology security of the Zhifanggou Valley in the Loess Hilly region

【目的】为黄土丘陵区生态安全预警及其建设提供科学依据。【方法】以纸坊沟流域近70年代表年份生态安全态势及影响因子的分析为基础,参考压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型建立农业生态安全预警指标体系。运用层次分析法（AHP）和德尔菲法（Delphi）确定指标权重,采用综合指数法计算生态安全质量值,用演化轴解释生态安全预警模式,定量评价该流域1938~2005年的农业生态安全状况,并预测2015年的发展趋势。【结果】纸坊沟流域1938年处于蓝灯区,无需预警；1958年为黑灯区,需作生态安全恶化速度预警；1975和1985年处于红灯区,需作生态安全较差状态预警；1995年处于黄灯区,2005和2015年继续向良好方向演化,均不需预警,但从发展趋势来看,预计人口密度于2020年左右进入警戒状态。【结论】研究结果与该流域的实际情况相符,该指标体系和生态安全预警模型可以应用于黄土丘陵区。

【Objective】 The study provided ecology security pre-warning and security construction with scientific basis in the Loess Hilly region.【Method】 Based on analysis of ecological security state and impact factors of Zhifanggou valley during 70 years and Press-State-Response（PSR） model,pre-warning index system of agricultural ecology security was established.AHP and Delphi methools were used to determine indicator weight;integrated value of ecology security was calculated by integrated index method;development axis was used to explain five models of ecology security pre-warning;ecological security conditions from 1938 to 2005 were quantitatively assessed and developing tendency in 2015 was predicted.【Result】 The results indicated that security condition of the Zhifanggou Valley lay in blue light region and there was no need for pre-warning in 1938;and the black light region needed pre-warning of deterioration velocity in 1958;and the red light region needed ill condition pre-warning in 1975 and 1985;and in yellow light region in 1995,it continued to develop in benign state and no need for pre-warning in 2005 and 2015,but with present development tendency,the author predicts peasants population density will be in pre-warning state in 2020.【Conclusion】 Research results are consistent with concrete condition,and the index system and pre-warning models of ecology security can be used in the Loess Hilly region.