层次马尔可夫链在民航安全管理中的应用

Application of AHP and Markov Chain in the Civil Aviation Economical Management

利用层次马尔可夫理论建立预测模型,预测系统未来各影响因素的危害度,仿真计算结果表明该方法能有效地预测系统未来的状态,从而科学指导未来民航安全管理决策,使航空安全与利益之间的关系达到最优化。

Through building predicted model by using analytic hierarchy process and Markov＇s chain methods, this paper predicts the future risk of all affected factors and gives an evaluation example. The result shows that this method can evaluate efficiently future states of system, then guide the decision of prospective aviation management scientifically, and thus maximize the relationship between airlines securities and profits.