库车县人口驱动力对耕地变化的作用

Effect of Kuche Population Driving Force on the Variation of Cultivated Land

采用1949-2004年的统计资料，对库车县人口和耕地的时间变化做出定量分析，建立耕地与人口相关模型并分析了库车县耕地与人口相关性变化趋势。研究并分析了50多年来人口数量和质量给库车县耕地带来的影响和压力。结果表明：①50年来研究区耕地面积三增三减波动变化，耕地面积峰值呈减小变化趋势；②利用50年耕地与对应的农村人口数据建立非线性回归分析模型，发现耕地面积与农村人口数之间存在着极显著的正相关关系；③鉴于库车县的现状提出解决人地矛盾的对策和建议：控制人口总量，提高当地人口素质，并通过提高耕地的利用效益，运用法律手段等措施来减轻人口素质给耕地带来的负面影响。

Using the statistical data from 1949 to 2004, the quantitative analysis of the variation of population and the cultivated land of Kuche county has been made. Moreover a correlative model between cultivated land and rural population has been sot up. the relevance change tendency between cultivated land and population has also been analyzed. This article has made analysis of the Influence and pressure that quantity and the quality of the population bring to the cultivated land of Kuche county. The results indicate： 1） During 50 years, the research area of cultivated land has experienced undulation change that shows the characteristic of three increases and three reduces ;2）There are Non- linear regression analysis model has been established, according to 50 years cultivated land and corresponding rural population data. Remarkable correlational-dependence can be easily found between the cultivated area and the rural population; 3） Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions which could solve the contradictory between people and the land was put forward. They are as follows：controlling the quantity of population; improving the quality of local people; enhancing the utilization benefit of cultivated land; making use of methods of laws and so on, in order to reduce the negative influence of the population on the cultivated land change.