摘要
在全面分析秦皇岛市水资源供需现状的基础上,运用系统动力学方法,建立秦皇岛市水资源系统动力学模型。以2005年为基准年,建立了秦皇岛市水资源供需平衡系统动力学模型对2010年和2020年的水资源供需平衡情况进行了预测分析.根据对模型的灵敏度分析制定了两种方案,从其相互比较中确定了最适合秦皇岛地区可持续发展的方案。从而为秦皇岛地区水资源的供需平衡和水资源可持续利用政策的制定提供一定的科学依据。
Based on the competely analysis of water resource in QinHuangdao,the paper develops a system dynamics model for water resources of the city.Taking 2005 as the benchmark year,the article develop the system dynamics model for the analysis of balance between water resource of supply and demand in QinHuangdao and forecast the balance between water resource of supply and demand of the year 2010 and 2020.According to the sensitive degree analysis,the paper establishes two alternative decisions,and then finding the one which most suit the sustainable development for QinHuangdao from intercomparsion the two.Consequently,the research provide some science gist in making policy about between supply and demand as well as the sustainable use of water resources in QinHuangdao.
出处
《节水灌溉》
北大核心
2008年第4期31-34,共4页
Water Saving Irrigation
基金
河北省教育厅自然科学(NO.Z2006202)
天津市科技发展计划项目(NO.OSYFSYSF032)
关键词
水资源
供需平衡
系统动力学
秦皇岛
water resources
balance between supply and demand
system dynamics
Qinhuangdao
