降尺度法在海南省降水趋势预测中的应用

Application of Downscaling Method in Monthly Precipitation Forecast of Hainan Province

从动力和统计相结合的角度,利用国家气候中心研制的动力气候模式输出的月、季平均500hPa高度场及其派生变量场作为预测因子,制作海南省月、季降水量趋势预测。月降水量经22个独立样本试验、季降水量经17个独立样本试验,趋势预报评分均超过国家局业务考核标准和同期业务发布评分,表明建立的预测模型可在海南省短期气候预测业务中参考使用。

Based on NCC dynamical climate model outputting factors of monthly （seasonal） 500hPa geo-potential height fields and their derivable variance fields, the tendency of monthly （seasonal） precipitation over Hainan province was given to combine dynamical and statistical approaches. Tendency forecast scores of independent 22 monthly and 17 seasonal forecast scores are higher than National Meteorological Administration＇ s assessing standard and the same term forecast scores. It indicates that the aforementioned model is usably in Hainan＇ s short-range climate forecast.