中印自由贸易区的构建对双方及世界经济影响计量研究

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of China-India FTA's Construction on China and the World Economy

本文运用GTAP模型,就中印自由贸易区的建立将对双方在贸易规模、贸易结构、GDP和福利水平等方面产生的经济影响进行了一般均衡模拟研究。研究结果表明,双方产业间和产业内贸易显著增强,产业梯度转移加快;中国服务业是其薄弱产业,将受到较大冲击;印度农产品不会受太大影响,其制造业受益显著,产业结构趋于相对平衡;中国的贸易条件、GDP及国民福利有所改善,印度则相对恶化,但仍表现出极大的福利外溢效应,世界总福利改善显著。

Applying GTAP model,this paper does a computable general equilibrium analysis on the impact of China- India FTA's construction on both sides and the world economy from aspect of trade scale,trade structure, GDP and the social welfare.The result indicates that,the inter-industrial and intra-industrial trades be- tween both sides enlarge significantly,industrial gradient transfers acceleratedly;services are the inferior industries for China and suffer great negative impact;India's agricultural products are not affected sub- stantially,its manufactures benefit evidently and its industrial structure tends to relative balance;China's terms of trade,GDP and the national welfare improve,while India deteriorate correspondingly;as a whole,the FTA still display great benefit spillover effect,the world total welfare improves markedly.