人民币均衡汇率失调问题研究--一个改进的简约单方程BEER模型分析

On the Misalignment of RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate

本文在传统的BEER模型的基础上对影响人民币均衡汇率的宏观经济中期因素和长期因素进行细分,构建一个改进的简约单方程模型,并利用国际货币基金组织提供的数据进行实证分析,并测算人民币汇率失调程度,最后得出结论:这几年我国劳动生产率的不断提高以及贸易条件的改善,要求人民币汇率在一个较长的时期内不断升值,而开放度等宏观经济因素在中期内则起着相反的作用,因此人民币汇率变动受到宏观经济基本面的综合影响。

This paper makes a subdivision about the medium-term and long-term macroeconomic factors which affect RMB equilibrium exchange rate, based on traditional BEER model. We design an improved simple single-equation model, execute an empirical analysis on the data provided by the IMF and measure the extent of real exchange rate misalignment. Finally, we come to a conclusion that the persistent improvement of labor productivity as well as the development in the terms of trade requires the RMB exchange rate to appreciate for a long period. On the contrary, other macroeconomic factors, such as the degree of liberalization, play an opposite effect in the medium term. Therefore, the change of RMB exchange rate is influenced by the macroeconomic situation.