中国制造业技术变化实证研究

Research on Technological Change of Chinese Manufacturing Industries

制造业的发展关系到第二产业及整个国民经济的发展，制造业的增长是中国工业经济增长的主导力量。本文使用DEA-Malmquist指数法，测度了中国制造业中20个行业1997～2005年的全要素生产率TFP变化情况，并在此基础上把制造业分为非耐用消费品、中间投入品和资本品及耐用消费品三个部门，比较了部门问技术变化的差异。研究结果表明：制造业的TFP平均增长率为3．76％，其中技术进步是TFP增长的主要原因；在三个部门中，非耐用消费品工业全要素生产率平均增长最快，资本品及耐用消费品工业整体表现最好，低水平的规模效率抑制了中间投入品工业部门技术效率的提高，从而阻碍了该部门全要素生产率增长。

The manufacturing sector is a leading force in China＇s industrial growth. In this paper, DEA-Malmquist index is applied to measure TFP changes in China ＇ s 20 manufacturing industries from 1997 to 2005. And in order to compare the disparities of technological change, the manufacturing industries are divided into three sectors, non-durable consumer goods, intermediate inputs, capital goods and durable consumer goods. In this way, characteristics of technological change of different industries are reflected. The results show that the TFP growth of manufacturing sector is 3.76 % on average, of which technological progress is the main reason. In the three sectors, the TFP of non-durable consumer goods grow fastest, capital goods and durable consumer goods performance the best as a whole, low scale efficiency of the intermediate inputs industries inhibits the growth of technological efflciency, thus hampering the sector＇s TFP growth.