地磁加卸载响应比方法在地震预报中的应用

APPLICATION OF GEOMAGNETIC LOADING-UNLOADING RESPONSE RATIO METHOD TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

应用地磁加卸载响应比方法,研究河北省各地磁台1982—2006年地磁Z分量加卸载响应比的高值异常与河北省及邻近地区Ms≥5.0地震之间的对应关系。结果表明:1)在这25年内,共出现了符合判据标准的异常19次,在其后11个月内对应地震仍有13次,应报15个,虚报3次,漏报2次;2)大多数地震之前的异常极大值的空间分布都相对集中于震中区附近;3)其内检预报效能指标R=0.44,通过检验。

The relation between high anomalies of Z component of geomagnetism at seimological stations in Hebei province and its neighbouring area for earthquake of Ms≥5.0 from 1982 to 2006 is analyzed with the method of loading-unloading response ratio. The result shows： 1 ） during the twenty-five years, ninteen anomalies coincided with the standard at Hebei geomagnetic stations had been obtained, thirteen of which respond to the Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in eleven months after the earthquakes, fifteen earthquakes should be predicted, three predictions were false and two predictions were missed ;2） before most of the earthquakes the spatial distribution of maximal value of the anormalies was relatively concentrated in the vicinity of epicentral area; 3 ） the inner-check prediction efficiency indicator R = 0.44, passed the examination.