图书馆借阅量预测的灰色系统模型

Grey System Mode Predicts Loan Quantity

采集了1997年至2006年间九个学年度的借阅量,运用灰色系统模型的基本理论和后验差检验准则,预测2006年至2009年三个学年度的借阅量,从贯彻"以人为本"的育人理念,提高参考咨询服务水平的角度,探讨预测结果对新馆管理的启示。

The thesis introduces the background of grey system mode, states the fundamental theory and the after test rule of grey system mode, and predicts the loan quantity of three school year from 2006 to 2009 on the base of the loan quantity of nine school year from 1997 to 2006. Finally, the author discusses the prediction conclusion＇ s enlightenment to the new library administration that new library should realize the educational idea that people is the base and enhance the reference service.