流动性过剩条件下中国股市高位波动的相关因素分析

Correlation factors on Chinese stock market fluctuation at high index under excess liquidity condition

2007年,股市空前高涨和流动性过剩成为经济发展中最热门的话题之一。运用多元回归模型,对流动性过剩条件下中国股市高位波动的相关因素进行了实证研究。研究表明:流动性过剩对于股市繁荣具有助推作用,宏观经济景气是中国股市"走牛"的实体保证,居民储蓄已经成为股市波动的风向标,而股市与房市由于资金密集的特性一起承担起过剩流动性分流的主渠道。得出的最基本结论:流动性过剩和股市高涨的大背景,给做强、做大以股市为中心的资本市场提供了千载难逢的机遇。

Excess liquidity and stock market boom became one of the most popular topics on Chinese economic development in 2007. Using multiple regression model, the paper analyzed the correlation factor on Chinese stock market fluctuation at high index under excess liquidity condition. Our research shows that： （1） the excess liquidity has an impetus function on Chinese stock market; （2） the macro economic booming is the entity guarantee for Chinese stock market boom; （3） the personal saving already becomes the vane for the Chinese stock market fluctuation; （4） because of the characteristic of fund crowded, the stock market and housing market serve as the main channel to diverge excess liquidity together. The paper reached a most basic conclusion： the background of excess liquidity and stock market boom has provided a good opportunity to build a big and strong stock-market centered Chinese capital market.