出口退税的经济效应实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Economic Effect of Export Drawback

将国家出口退税政策加入到出口函数中,协整分析的实证结果表明政策性变化对出口的影响较大,存在出口退税率出口退税额↑→出口额↑→GDP↑的传导机制,相互之间呈现了同步性的变化规律,而且具有良好的正相关关系,因此从出口退税的经济效应的实证分析中得出结论,改变出口退税的产品结构,能够提高政府支持和扶植企业出口的积极性和主动性,增强出口能力,并且有利于产业结构调整;同时能够抑制部分企业的出口能力,对于减少贸易顺差,化解国际矛盾十分有利。因此,针对不同的行业制定不同的出口退税率,是促进经济发展的一条良性循环反馈系统。

Joining the national export drawback to the export function, the empirical results of co - inte- gration test shows that the policy-type change is a big influence to the exportation. It has the transmission GDP ↑, mechanism which Export drawback Rate ↑→Export drawback Amount ↑→Export Amount ↑→ and it shows the changing law of synchronism with each other, moreover it has stable positive relationship. So, we candraw the conclusion from the empirical analysis on economic effect of export drawback that changing product structure of export rebate can enhance the enthusiasm and the initiative which the government＇s support and enterprise export, and it can strengthen the export ability, moreover it is good to the adjustment of industrial structure; Meanwhile it can restrain the export ability of some enterprise. It is also good to the decreasing of trade surplus and the resolving of international frictions. Therefore, it is a positive cycle feedback system for economic growth that setting out different export drawback rate for specified industry.