一种预测模型及参数识别

A Forecasting Model and its Determination of Parameters

对产品销量的中长期预测,纵观国内文献,还没有理想的方法,尚停留在定性预测阶段.本文按产品销售的发展规律,建立相应的微分方程,推导出一种产品寿命周期曲线的表达式,把它作为预测模型,根据产品销售量的历史数据,给出预测模型的两种参数识别方法,为产品销售量的定量预测提供理论依据,也为有关领导的决策提供科学依据.文章讨论了产品寿命周期曲线的性质;证明了用此模型参数识别方法的合理性,对产品寿命周期各阶段的划分,已求得简便实用的公式.

The references abroad and at home show that the sates volume forecast is still remaining on the qualitative stage.The quantitative research is just at the beginning.No ideal method has been found. According to the development of sales volume of products,this paper has given an appropriate differential equation and hence a quantitative model of life period curve of products has been deduced,with which two ways have been given to determine the parameters in the model by the historical data of sales volumes and which would lay the theoretic basis for the quan- titative forecast of sales volumes and also supply a scientific basis for leaders in making policies.This paper also discusses the qualitative characters of the life period curve of products and shows the rationality in determining the parameters with this model.This paper also gives its simple and practical formula to divide the life period stags.