L-矩估计方法在极端降水研究中的应用

ADVANTAGES OF L-MOMENT ESTIMATION AND ITS APPLICATION TO EXTREME PRECIPITATION

本文引进具有高精度优良特性的L-矩参数估计方法,应用Gumbel分布模式拟合我国东部地区的极端降水量。结果表明,参数的L-矩估计法使Gumbel分布拟合极端降水的优度有较大的提高,同时在给定重现期条件下估计极值分位数具有良好的效果。相对而言,对短样本序列,L-矩估计比常规矩估计具有明显的优势。

An effective method of parameter estimation of L-moment is used in this paper,and Gumbel distribution is taken to fit the extreme precipitation over Eastern China. The results show that with the parameter estimation method the fitting precision is improved. In a way, L-moment is a better method for parameter estimation than that of conventional moment especially for small sample size,and it also shows a bright future for estimating quantile value.