1978年以来中国铁路运输区域差异统计分析与评价

On the Measurement and Evaluation of Regional Railway Transportation Disparities in China since 1978

区域经济发展的不平衡必然使得区域铁路运输具有差异性。利用1978-2005年的铁路运输数据，采用重心模型、变异系数和加权变异系数，从客运量、客运周转量、货运量和货运周转量4个方面，对中国铁路运输的区域差异进行了统计分析和评价。结果发现：1．客运量重心在逐步向西南方向移动，其中向西移动了2经度，向南移动了2．6纬度；铁路客运量区域差异在逐步减小。2．客运周转量重心呈直线形逐步向西南方向移动，其中，重心向西移动了2．3经度，向南移动了2．9纬度；铁路客运周转量区域差异整体上呈减小趋势，但其中波动较大，可以划分为5个阶段。3．货运量重心波动较大；货运量区域差异在逐渐增大，而且区域差异的增长幅度明显加大，两极分化越来越严重。4．货运周转量重心变化轨迹略呈指数型；货运周转量区域差异呈先减小后增大的趋势，2000年以前区域差异在减小，2000年以后区域差异在增大。

Based on the railway transportation data from 1978 to 2005, the four targets, such as passenger, passenger kilometers, freight traffic, freight ton kilometers are analyzed; and gravity center model, coefficient of variation and the weighted coefficient of are applied to in order to measure and evaluate the regional railway transportation disparities. The results are as following： a. the passenger gravity center is moving to southwest by step, the gravity center moved to west by 2° and by 2.6° to south and the regional disparities of railway passenger is decreasing; b. the passenger kilometers gravity center is moving to southwest by step, the gravity center moved to west by 2.3°and by 2.9°to south, and the regional disparities of railway passenger kilometers, view the situation as a whole, is decreasing, but the tendency is undulate, and the tendency can be divided into five stages; c. the railway freight traffic gravity center changes more complicated, the regional disparities of railway freight traffic are enlarging, and the enlarging range is extending, the polarization is becoming more and more serious; d. the railway freight ton - kilometers gravity center is moving to southwest since 1978, the variation track is like the variation of index. The regional disparities of railway freight ton - kilometers have decreased before the year 2000, but after 2000 the regional disparities enlarged.