郑州市水资源可持续利用的模糊综合评价

Integrated Assessment of the Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in Zhengzhou City Based on a Modified Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

采用改进的模糊综合评价模型,从社会经济系统、生态环境系统和水资源系统3个层次16个指标对郑州市水资源可持续利用状况进行综合评价。结果表明:2001～2005年,郑州市水资源综合评价指数分别为0.28、0.32、0.46、0.40、0.43,整体上呈快速上升趋势,但其可持续状况仍然处在较差或一般阶段。在此基础上对未来规划水平年(2010、2015、2020年)水资源可持续状况进行预测和评价,结果表明,2005～2020年郑州市水资源可持续利用状况呈较快增长态势,2015年、2020年均可实现较强的可持续利用状况。水资源系统是影响郑州市水资源可持续利用的限制性要素,其中,提高污水排放达标率、污水回用比率、水资源利用系数(如单方水工业产值、万元GDP取水量、平均灌溉水利用系数)是改善郑州市城市水资源可持续利用状况的重要举措。

By the use of an improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the city water resources sustainable development level in Zhengzhou city was evaluated based on 16 indicators from 3 rule levels of water resources system, social economy system and econvironmental system. Results showed that from 2001 to 2005, the Zhengzhou＇s comprehensive index of water resources sustainable utilization was 0.28, 0. 32,0. 46,0. 40 and 0.43, respectively, which suggested that the comprehensive index of water resources sustainable utilization in Zhengzhou city was ascending with a rapid speed of 0.030, but still between weak to normal. The calculation with the model showed that the comprehensive index of water resources sustainable utilization in the future planning years （2010, 2015, 2020） could be enhanced with a quick speed of 0.015 per year. And the indicators in the water resources system were the key restrictive factors that affected water resources sustainable utilization. Among which, improving the effluent wastewater quality, reuse water quantity and water use efficiency, such as the value of industrial output from each cubic meter of water consumption, the water consumption volume per ten thousand Yuan GDP and the average water use efficiency of irrigation water were the fundamental practices for water resources sustainable utilization in Zhengzhou city.