灰色系统理论在煤层气含量预测中的应用

Application of grey system theory in prediction of coalbed methane content

煤层含气量是一个受多因素影响的反映煤层含气性的定量指标。以晋城矿区为例,根据煤层气地质基本理论,利用改进的斜率关联度法,分析了煤层气含量的影响因素;进而,由灰色多变量静态模型GM(0,N)预测了煤层气含量,并与多元回归分析的结果进行比较。结果表明,用改进斜率关联度进行灰色关联分析所确定的煤层气含量的主要影响因素是可信的;由GM(0,N)模型预测煤层含气量所需样本数据少,原理简单,计算方便,且预测精度较高。

The coalbed methane content is a quantitative index of the gas-bearing property of the coal seams affected by many factors. Taking Jingcheng mining area as an example this paper analyzed the incidence degree between the factors affecting coalbed methane content by adopting an improved slope degree of grey incidence in the research area. Moreover, this paper systematically predicted the coalbed methane content affected by several factors adopting multiple-factors static grey model. Comparing GM （0, N） model with regression analysis, it can be proved the advantage of grey model in the case of less data. Therefore, it further proved that the way of establishing the five main factors affecting the coalbed methane content by adopting an improved slope degree of grey incidence is trustworthy. GM（0, N）model needing fewer data can be easily calculated and have a simple theory and higher precision.