奥运会举办国参赛项目得金优势的研究

Gold Medals Won Advantage of Events of Host Countries in Olympic Games

以历届奥运会举办国参赛项目在举办届与非举办届的金牌数和我国奥运项目2008年得金优势为研究对象,对举办国参赛项目在举办届和非举办届的得金比进行T检验,发现举办国参赛项目在举办届时的得金比明显高于非举办届,表明奥运会举办国参赛项目存在举办国优势。对奥运会举办国参赛项目得金优势进行聚类分析,把所有奥运会项目划分为高优势项目、中优势项目和低优势项目3大类。从数据分布特点来看,奥运会项目举办国优势并没有表现出明显的项群特点。最后,结合我国各参赛项目雅典奥运会竞争实力、项目发展潜力和计算出的各奥运会项目举办国优势,综合评价2008年奥运会我国男女参赛项目的举办国优势,并据此确定各项目参赛目标,按照目标把所有参赛项目归为超越雅典、保持金牌、突破金牌、力争奖牌4大类。

Taking gold medals won by host countries between home and away in summer Olympic games and the achievement of Chinese Olympic events as the study subjects, and using the statistics methods, the paper quantified the home advantage of Olympic events by which classified the Olympic events, furthermore estimated the home advantage of Chinese Olympic events. The resuits as following： （i）The percentages of gold medals won by host country in a given event in home is bigger than away and the difference between home and away varies in different event. （ii） the home advantage of Olympic events are existed and different event has different home advantage, however, the home advantage of Olympic events dose not feature events group. （iii）in 2008 Olympic games, 18 events in China may win gold medals： 7 man＇s events and llwomen＇s events, which must be paid more attention to in the program of preparation for 2008 Olympic game. （iiii）China still have enough potential events to win further gold medals in 2008 Olympic games and women have a higher ability to do so.