摘要
在研究我国劳动年龄人口、供给劳动力、就业劳动力基本状况的基础上,通过总和受教育年限、总和就业年限指标测量目前劳动力潜在的供给特征,并应用微观人口仿真模型分析了近期内供给劳动力的基本状况和变动趋势。研究表明,未来5-10年我国劳动力供给总量结构处在变化转折阶段,变动趋势是:供给规模增长将转变为惯性增长;高中及以上文化程度劳动力所占比重持续上升;劳动力老化趋势不可逆转且日益严重。
The paper studies China＇s population of working age, the supply and employment of labor force, then surveys the potential supply of labor force by using the indicators of total schooling year, and total employment year, finally analyses the tendency of the supply by applying micro-simulation model. The findings show that in the future 5 to 10 years the amount of labor supply is in a stage of transition, with the following features： change from large-scale increase to inertial one, persistent portion increase of laborers receiving senior middle school education or higher, unchangeable and increasingly serious labor aging.
出处
《南京人口管理干部学院学报》
2008年第2期62-67,共6页
Journal of Nanjing College for Population Programme Management
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(06BRK010)
关键词
劳动年龄人口
供给劳动力
就业劳动力
总和受教育年限
总和就业年限
微观仿真模型
Population of Working Age
Supply Labor Force
Employed Labor Force
Total Schooling Year
Total Employment Year
Micro-simulation Model
