开放条件下我国货币政策操作规则检验

Operational Rules of Chinese Monetary Policy in Open Economy

本文利用我国1994—2006年的季度数据,分别对开放经济条件下的Taylor规则和McCallum规则进行了实证检验,结果表明,我国货币政策操作一直遵从McCallum规则,Taylor规则不适合我国国情。这意味着,如果经济结构不发生大的变化,就可以根据历史数据回归得到的McCallum规则的各种参数和通胀缺口、实际汇率、货币乘数、货币流通速度等变量的预期变化测算出合理的基础货币增长率,这将为调控基础货币供给提供重要参照。

Based on seasonal data from 1994 to 2006, this paper conducts an empirical test with Taylor rule and MeCallum rule in the open economy of China. The result shows that our monetary policy operation obeys McCallum rule, and Taylor rule doesn＇t apply to China＇s situation. It means that, given no essential change in economic structure, a reasonable growth rate of base money could be calculated through regressed parameters in McCallum rule and anticipated inflation gap, real exchange rate, monetary multiplier, and monetary velocity. The result provides vital reference to base money supply manipulation.