人民币汇率波动与通货膨胀率之间关系的实证分析

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Inflation Rate

本文试图回答以下问题:人民币升值可以替代通货膨胀吗?如果可以,定量的替代关系如何?在综合使用了多种分析方法后,我们发现人民币升值在某种程度上确实可以抑制国内价格水平的上涨,但其效果决定了升值不能成为抑制通胀的主要工具。另外,通过模型我们还揭示出劳动生产率的提高对于国内物价的上涨具有决定性意义。

The article tries to answer two major questions： Can the appreciation of RMB substitute for inflation？ If so, what＇s the exact correlation between them？ To find out the answers, the article introduces linear regression model and VAR model. Tile results come as follows： （1） to some extent, the RMB appreciation does have a substitution effect for inflation, but the effect is not fierce enough to be a main policy tool in tackling with inflation, and that （2） by our model, inflation is proved to be inevitable because of the rapid growth of productivity in China.