大肠癌预后logistic回归分析

Logistic regression analysis of prognosis of the large intestine cancer

目的探讨大肠癌预后的危险因素,为降低大肠癌的病死率提供参考。方法根据大肠癌病例纳入标准(ICD-10),整群抽取湖南省肿瘤医院2002年1月1日～2004年12月31日所有因大肠癌而住院的病历资料共977例,按治愈和未愈分两组进行非条件多因素Logistic回归分析。结果调查977例大肠癌。其中,男602例,女375例,男、女比例为1.61∶1。年龄16～87岁,平均51.20岁,3年大肠癌的平均年龄差异无显著性。11个年龄组的男女构成差异有显著性,75岁以上男性所占的比例最大。3年中大肠癌的职业分布和地区分布差异有显著性。非条件逐步logistic回归分析显示:手术、职业、性别、年龄、转移、临床分期影响大肠癌的预后。结论手术、经济条件好、男性有利于大肠癌的预后。而年龄大、有器官转移、晚期不利于大肠癌的预后。

[Objective] To study the risk factors of large intestine cancer prognosis and offer evidence for reducing the incidence rate of large intestine. [Methods] According to the entering standard of large intestine cancer （ICD-10）, sample clusterly 977 cases of large intestine cancer who were hospitalized in the Hunan Tumor Hospital from Jan.lst 2002 to Dec.31st 2004, classified into the groups according to whether they were cured or not. We conducted the analysis through non-conditional multi-factors regression analysis. [Results] 977 cases of the large intestine cancer patients of 602 males and 375 femals（1.61：1） with the youngest 17 years old and the eldest 89 and the average 52.20 were investigated. The average age of the disease throughout three years has no statistical significance, while the structure of male and female of 11 age groups has statistical significance, the maximal proportion lies in the male group who are over 75 year old. The large intestine cancer distribution in career and area has statistical significance in the three years. The non-conditional gradual logistic regression analysis manifests that： the elements of surgeon, career, sex, age, transfer factors and clinical stage can influence the prognosis of the large intestine cancer. [Conclusion] The elements of surgeon, cadre and male do favor to the large intestine cancer prognosis, while the elements of elder, organ transfer, later period influence the effect.