电力供需研究综合集成研讨厅系统的设计与实现

Design and Implementation of the Meta-Synthesis Seminar Hall System for Power Supply and Demand Research

分析了电力市场供需分析预测的复杂性和不确定性,研究了人机结合、从定性到定量的综合集成方法,设计并实现了电力供需研究综合集成研讨厅。该系统将电力经济数据信息、专家知识和经验与计算机模拟、分析处理能力结合起来,采用从定性到定量综合集成研讨的方式,形成一个电力市场供需相关重要问题研究、会商和决策支持的智能系统,能够支持专家群体对电力市场供需研究所依赖的政策环境、外部条件等重要基础数据以及分析预测结果进行综合分析评估,获得比以往更加科学、合理的量化决策支持方案。系统还能够用于其他复杂性、战略性问题的研讨。

This paper analyzes the complexity and uncertainty of prediction on power supply and demand, and studies the meta-synthesis method of man-machine integration from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis. The meta-synthesis seminar hall system for power supply and demand research is designed and implemented. The system integrates power economy information, special know how and experience of experts with computer simulation and computing capacity. The mode of meta-synthesis from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis is adopted to construct an intelligent system, which can support research, meeting and decision-making related to power supply and demand. And the system can support experts who will synthetically analyze and evaluate the important data that power supply and demand studies rely on, such as policy environment, external conditions, and the analytical results. More scientific, reasonable and quantitative plans for decision-making can be obtained from this system, and it can be used in seminars for other complicated and strategical problems.