GM(1,1)模型在海口市农作物种植业水污染预测中的应用

Application of GM(1,1) Model for Agricultural Planting Water Forecast in Haikou City

根据海南省海口市2001～2005年的农作物播种面积、农业总产值、农业COD、氨氮排放量等数据资料,利用灰色理论建立了GM(1,1)模型,预测海口市2006～2010年的农业种植水的COD、氨氮排放量等指标,分析了海口市农业种植水污染的变化原因及趋势,并提出了治理海口市农业种植水污染的对策。

Abstract According to the data about crop planting area, agricultural production value, COD, NH3-N from 2001 to 2005 of Haikou city, Hainan province, several agricultural planting wastewater indexes are forecasted based on GM（1,1） model, Some reasons for the change of indexes are also be discussed in order to make suitable planning and protect pollution from agricultural planting.