群体态度转变的非线性动力学研究方法

The Research Method of Nonlinear Dynamics for Collective Attitude Changing

将非线性动力学的模型运用于群体态度转变的研究,探讨如何从方法上解决将哈肯等人提出的理论模型应用于实际的问题。采用参数估计得到转移概率、偏好参数和顺从参数的计算方法。通过对模型中参数的判断,可以得到群体态度的演化情况,确定群体的态度是处于稳定状态,还是处于变化的临界点。利用该模型可以动态地把握群体心理的演化趋势尤其是对群体心理发生突变的可能性作出预测。

This paper discusses the application of nonlinear dynamics model which originally was put forward by H. Haken to the topic of collective attitude change. Using parameter estimation finds a way to obtain the values of transfer-probability, predilection the parameters, the evolvement contrail of collective and compliance parameters. By the judgment upon attitude can be found, and further more, whether the state of collective attitude is in stabilization or critical point of break can be ascertained. Applying the model of nonlinear dynamics to collective attitude change can help us to dynamically predominate the trends of collective attitude and especially to forecast emergence of sudden change for collective behaviors.