生物柴油产业发展与植物油供求关系分析

Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand and the Development of China's Biodiesel Industry

生物柴油是一种清洁的可再生能源,其所利用的原料资源归纳起来主要有植物油脂、各种废油和动物油脂,而植物油是目前世界上制取生物柴油的最主要原料。随世界石油价格上升,包括欧盟、美国及中国等国家在内的世界生物柴油生产能力和生产量的大幅度增加。国际石油价格的大幅度上涨,生物柴油产业快速发展,致使CBOT豆油价格持续上升,而且面临继续上升的巨大压力。我国植物油供给严重不足,直接和间接进口植物油占中国植物油总供给量的比例已达到56%,生物柴油产业发展所需的大量植物油只能依赖直接大量进口,这将进一步加剧世界植物油市场的供求紧张局面;受世界植物油价格的上升,增加了生物柴油生产成本,使生物柴油产业投资面临风险。为此应根据我国农业资源特点,制定长远的生物柴油发展战略、努力实现生物柴油原料多样化,并合理引导生物柴油行业投资,以实现中国生物柴油产业的健康发展。

Biodiesel is a clean and renewable energy source that offers an alternative to petroleum-based diesel. There are three types of raw materials used for biodiesel production： vegetable oils, animal fats and waste oils, with vegetable oils the most widely used. Rapeseed oil is the most common raw material for biodiesel production, but its proportion of total production is declining, while soybean oil, palm oil, coconut oil, and cottonseed oil are increasing. The rise in crude oil prices has stimulated an increase in global biodiesel production capacity. In the EU, biodiesel production increased from 100,0000 tons in 1993 to more than three million tons in 2005. Biodiesel production in the United States has also grown rapidly, and is projected to reach 5.7 million tons in annual capacity. China＇s annual biodiesel production capacity was 200,000 tons in 2005, and the official targets for growth are 2 million tons by 2010 and 12 million tons by 2020. With increasing global crude oil prices and rapid development of the biodiesel industry, the CBOT soybean oil price has risen dramatically, reaching the highest point in several years in November 2007. China has an insufficient domestic supply of vegetable oils, and imports large quantities of palm oils, soybean oils and soybeans. Imports already make up 56% of the national vegetable oil supply. Agricultural resources are limited in China, and oil crop production is increasing very slowly, so there is a huge gap between the domestic vegetab!e oil supply and demand. Vegetable oils for use in biodiesel production must be imported, and this will add to the tension between supply and demand in the world vegetable oil market. Rising global prices for vegetable oil increase the costs of biodiesel production as well as the investment risk. We suggest that it is necessary to develop a long-term strategy for the development of China＇s biodiesel industry and also to diversify the raw materials for biodiesel production.