论欧盟天然气市场改革:现状、障碍和前景

Reform of the European Natural Gas Market: Current Status, Obstacles and Future Prospects

近年来全球天然气需求和价格的不断增长促使欧盟开展天然气市场改革以确保天然气供给安全和相关产业竞争力。但欧盟相关改革指令的执行情况并不尽如人意,从而导致欧盟天然气市场改革进展缓慢,各成员国天然气市场仍处在分割的状况。欧盟天然气市场改革这种差强人意的状况引发了欧盟官方和学术界的各种讨论。本文对各方观点进行分析,揭示了欧盟指令效力的不对称、基建能力不足、监管和处罚措施不力以及贸易联系刚性是阻碍欧盟天然气市场改革的主要障碍,并在此基础上对欧盟天然气市场发展前景进行展望,本文认为欧盟天然气市场的发展进程将会出现以下趋势:①欧盟内部天然气市场发展呈现多层次性的特点;②欧盟天然气基建设施进一步发展,LNG在欧盟天然气市场中地位显著上升;③天然气短期交易发展迅速,长期合同虽减少仍占据重要地位;④欧盟天然气市场定价机制多样化,但石油价格仍然对天然气价格有重大影响。

Global demand for natural gas has grown rapidly in the last several years, resulting in a constant increase in natural gas prices. In response, the European Union has introduced market reforms to ensure a secure supply of natural gas and improve industry competitiveness, but the implementation has so far been unsatisfactory. By October 2006, only 7 of the 25 EU members had fully opened up their natural gas markets, and the degree of market openness was below 100% for all ten new members. There has been little progress in the EU＇s natural gas market reforms, and the industry is monopolized by several large enterprises. This paper describes four main obstacles to further market reform： asymmetrical regulation of upstream and downstream markets, deficient infrastructure capacity, ineffective monitoring and enforcement, and rigidity of trade relations. Finally, this paper considers prospects for the development of the EU natural gas market. First, the natural gas markets in EU member countries will develop at different rates. France and new EU members will develop slowly due to government regulation and infrastructure constraints, while the Netherlands and Belgium will grow more quickly. The UK market is nearly mature as a free market due to its early reforms. Second, improvements in natural gas infrastructure will help to attract increased investment. LNG facilities will grow more rapidly than pipelines due to convenience of storage and transport. Third, the spot market for natural gas will develop rapidly, but long-term contracts will still be important for securing supply. Finally, the development of a spot market will diversify pricing mechanisms, but oil prices will still have a substantial effect on natural gas prices.