绝缘子泄漏电流值预测方法综述

Review on the Prediction Methods on Insulator Leakage Current

介绍了目前国内外绝缘子泄漏电流值预测的三种方法。分析后指出,目前预测方法存在预测机理不清楚、预测模型引入的属性不精确、预测模型的历史数据库数量大、维数高,信息挖掘困难等问题。针对这些问题提出了改进建议:预测方法机理应清楚明了,尽量实现可视化;应使用一种高效的方法对数据库中的数据进行处理,实现规则的有效提取;可将预测系统和在线监测系统结合起来,将在线监测系统测得的泄漏电流及其他环境参数作为预测系统的历史数据库,提出了未来预测方法的发展方向。

Three prediction methods on insulator leak current used in China and abroad are presented. Analyses and compares three prediction methods seriously, Review on these methods shows that there are unclear forecast mechanism, imprecise attributes of the forecasting model, large pre-history of the database model, high dimensions, difficult information mining and others. In view of these problems, it is recommended to have a clear mechanism of prediction method, a visible display, an effective data processing procedure for regular effective data picking, integration of prediction system and on-line monitoring system, taking the monitored leakage current data and environment parameters as the history database. Recommendations for improvement and the future direction of development of forecasting methods are given.