北京市土地利用变化及驱动机制研究

Study on Land Use Change and Its Driving Mechanism in Beijing

文章首先分析了北京市快速发展的1993—2005年间的土地利用变化情况,发现数量的变化主要是耕地、牧草地面积的大幅减少和居民点及工矿用地面积的显著增加,持续减少的耕地和持续增加的居民点及工矿用地的土地利用动态均较为显著,但在不同时段有一定差异。在此基础上,文章选取了一些社会经济统计变量,建立了土地利用变化驱动因素体系,并利用因子分析方法确定了北京市土地利用变化的主要驱动因素是经济发展、人民生活条件改善;其次是劳动就业,明确了北京市土地利用变化的驱动机制:经济规模扩大及产业结构优化、就业结构演进及生活条件改善直接推动着以耕地为代表的农用地减少、建设用地增加。

This paper analyses the land use change in Beijing during the rapid development period 1993-2005, finding that the remarkable change lies in the decrease of cultivated land and grassland and the increase of constructed land. The land use dynamic indices of cultivated land which decreases continuously and constructed land which increases continuously are very high, but the indices vary in different periods. Then a driving force factor system is constructed using social and economic statistic data. Base on factor analysis, it is concluded that the driving force of land use change in Beijing mainly lies in economic growth, improvement of living conditions and employment. The driving mechanism can be explained as follows ： the cultivated land decreases and the constructed land increases with the economic growth and upgrading of industrial structure on one hand, and the change of employment structure and improvement of living conditions on the other hand.