论突破季度气候预测难题的可行性

On feasibility of breaking through the knotty problem of seasonal climate foreshadow

虽然国内外均高度重视季度气候预测研究,可是近数十年来利用动力季度预测模式作出区域气候预测的技巧评分仍然很低,这限制其在气象服务中发挥作用。作者认为应考虑预测因子与预测对象的时—空尺度匹配问题。一些动力季度预测模式设计得很复杂细致,但无法解决瞬时初值场在计算积分中出现的混沌现象。建议深入研究气候分析统计方法中大量采用的隔季遥联,动力季度预测模式若和气候分析统计方法有机结合,可能会取得突破性进展且具有相当的可行性。

Although investing large funds in developing seasonal dynamical models on regional climate foreshadow during recent decades, the skill scores of above results still remain very low, so they can not play active roles in practice. Now the authors think we should consider the matching problem of timespace scales between predictors and predictands. Some seasonal dynamical foreshadow models were designed very complex and sophisticated, but they can not solve the successive generations of chaos＇ phenomena in the course of calculations and integrations of the initial data fields. It is a suggestion to deeply research into the inter-seasonal teleconnections, which were largely utilized in present predictive method of climate diagnosis- statistics. Once the seasonal dynamical models will be rationally combined with climate diagnosis- statistics, then an outstanding progress may be achieved with considerable feasibility.