中国与东盟贸易条件变化和波动情况的经验分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Variations and Fluctuations in China's Terms of Trade with ASEAN

依据在联合国统计司Comtrade数据库,对中国与东盟贸易条件的变化情况和波动情况进行经验分析,结果发现:在1987～2006年期间,中国与东盟的整体贸易条件和初级产品贸易条件都有一定程度的改善,而制成品贸易条件则出现了一定程度的恶化;中国与东盟初级产品进出口贸易发展的不稳定、资源型制成品进出口贸易发展的不平衡以及初级产品贸易条件大的波动对中国与东盟整体贸易条件的波动起了主导作用。

Based on the database of United Nations Statistics Division, this paper analyzes the variations and fluctuations in China＇s terms of trade with ASEAN. Our conclusion is： 1. From 1987 to 2006, China＇s overall terms of trade with ASEAN and terms of trade of primary goods with ASEAN improved to varied extents. However, the terms of trade of manufactured goods with ASEAN deteriorated to some degree. 2. The volatility of China＇s terms of trade with ASEAN is mainly due to the instability of trade of primary goods, the imbalance of trade of resource-based manufactures and the large fluctuations in primary goods.