“蓝箱”政策改革对中国总体扭曲性支持的影响

Effects of "Blue Box" Policy Reform on Overall Trade-Distorting Support in China

利用"假设削减方案"的研究方法,模拟了"蓝箱"政策改革对中国总体扭曲性支持(OTDS)的影响,并与主要的利益相关者美国、欧盟、日本、加拿大和巴西进行了对比,结果表明:"新蓝箱"将不会给中国国内支持带来较大冲击;而欧盟和美国将会受到较大冲击,但执行期结束时他们仍然能保留较大的扭曲性支持空间;"蓝箱"政策改革可能导致欧盟和美国调整国内支持政策,这将给中国等发展中国家的农业生产和贸易带来不确定性。

With the utilization of technical simulation method of ＂hypothetical reduction scenarios＂, this paper simulates the effects of ＂blue box＂ policy reform on the overall trade-distorting support （OTDS） in China, and compares with other major members including USA, EU, Japan, Canada and Brazil. The results show that domestic agricultural support of China will not be affected in a strong way by ＂blue box＂ policy reform. USA and EU have higher sensitivity to the blue box policy reform under different scenarios, which may further impact China＇s agricultural production and trade in a complicated way.