油气长输管道定量风险评价

Quantitative Risk Analysis of Oil and Gas Long-distance Pipeline

管道风险评价普遍采用以Kent打分法为代表的定性方法,笔者提出了一种新方法,即定量风险评价(QRA),采用基于管道失效历史数据库和已有成熟的数值模型,进行管道失效概率分析和失效后果分析,并以此方法在某输气管道上进行了验证,最后得到管段的绝对风险和人口密集段的个人风险,并进行了风险预测。研究表明,QRA受人员主观判断影响较小,计算方法科学合理,结果量化,对进行检测与维护维修资源的分配具有很好的指导意义。

Pipeline risk assessment generally adopts the qualitative method of Kent Grading. To make the assessment more scientific, a new method, QRA （ quantitative risk analysis）, is firstly presented, which conducts pipeline failure probability analysis and failure consequence analysis based on history database of pipeline failure and matured mathematical models. Then, this method is applied to assess certain gas-transportation pipeline system ; the absolute risk and individual risk in the pipeline section with dense population are obtained, and risk is predicted. The results show that QRA is more objective and scientific, and can provide quantitative results as well, which is very useful to the allocation of inspection and maintenance resource.