梯级水库汛限水位动态控制模型研究及运用

Dynamic control model for limiting level during flood season of cascade reservoirs operation

结合流域实时洪水预报及梯级水库防洪库容信息,提出基于预报及库容补偿的梯级水库汛限水位动态控制逐次渐进补偿调度模型。该模型包括三个模块,其一是考虑预报及库容补偿作用的补偿调度模块;其二是保证不降低原防洪标准的预报预泄模块;其三是关联变量协调模块。该模型运用贝尔曼的逐步逼近思想,通过多次迭代计算,最终得到最佳的梯级水库汛限水位方案。清江梯级水库的应用结果表明,在不降低库群原有防洪标准的前提下,丰、平、枯水年平均增加发电量1.68亿kW.h,减少弃水量6.89亿m3,可显著提高发电效益和洪水资源利用率。

By considering the information of real-time flood forecasting and storage capacity of cascade reservoirs, a real-time dynamic control model of flood limit water levels limiting level during flood season of cascade reservoirs, named successive approximate compensated operating model （SACOM）, is proposed and developed. The SACOM consists of three components. First one is compensate operating module for obtaining the optimal operation processes of all the reservoirs. Second one is pre-release forecasting module for calculating the allowable maximum water level of every reservoir. Third one is coupling adjustment module for estimating the optimal limiting level during flood season by iterative computation. The application results of the Qingjiang cascade hydropower plants show that the proposed model can on an average generate extra hydropower energy 1.68 × 10^8kW·h and save flood water resources 6.89 × 10^8m^3 without decreasing the flood prevention standard.