配电网运行率的理论分析

Theoretical Analysis of Electric Network's Operating Ratio

运用数学方法分析了配电网运行率的取值。拟合了"线路负荷"这一随机事件的分布类型,利用假设检验等数学方法分析得出这一事件大致服从正态分布。在此基础上,通过严密的数学推理,得出结论:配电网运行率也是一个服从正态分布随机变量,不采取任何措施的条件下要保证所有变压器和线路都不超负荷运行,配电网总运行率的平均值不宜超过50%。

The electric network＇s operating ratrio was mathematically analyzed. Distribution types of line load that is a random event is fitted. From the results gotten with hypothesis test, it is found that the load is subjected to normal distributionitting. Furthermore, it is concluded that the operating ratio of the electric network is also a random variable subjected to normal distribution. With no related measures adopted, in order to ensure a＇regular performance of all transformers and the whole line, the average value of electric network＇s operating ratio should be no more than 50%.