人民币升值对农产品进出口影响的实证分析

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF RENMINBI APPRECIATION'S INFLUENCE ON IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCE

人民币升值直接影响的是农产品的进出口贸易价格,不一定会显著影响农产品的进出口贸易额。利用偏自相关函数(PACF)和互相关函数(CCF)方法进行实证分析,我们可以看到:(1)人民币缓慢的升值速度给进出口商提供了充足的调整时间;(2)我国进出口农产品的价格弹性比较低,勉强超过ML条件的临界值;(3)由农业生产资源禀赋决定的农产品贸易格局很难改变;(4)人民币升值预期对农产品贸易产生的正向促进作用对冲了实际升值的滞后负面影响。由于这些原因,人民币的缓慢升值并没有对我国农产品贸易产生明显的冲击。

The appreciation of Renminbi will directly affect the imports and exports trade price, which will not probably result in obvious influence on quantum of produce imports and exports trade. When making empirical analysis with PACF and CCF, we can see： （1） Slow appreciation speed of Renminbi has provided businessmen ample adjusting period. （2） The price flexibility of our importing and exporting produce is relatively low, which has reluctantly exceeded the critical value. （3） Produce trading configuration determined by gift of agricultural production resource is difficult to be changed. （4） Anticipation of Renminbi appreciation has resulted in stimulus for produce trade, which has counteracted the negative influence of actual appreciation lag. Because of the above reasons, slow appreciation of Renminbi has not brought obvious impact on China＇s agricultural produce trade.