基于GIS的风暴潮洪水风险分析系统研究

Study on Storm Tide Induced Flood Risk Analysis System Based on GIS

利用GIS技术对上海市沿海地区风暴潮灾害的危险性进行了探索性评估,在实现洪水演进模型与风暴潮溃堤进水量计算模型实时耦合传输模式基础上,勾画出不同洪水频率下最大可能淹没范围,表述淹没水深等风险指标的空间分布。运用模糊数学方法和GIS叠置分析技术对洪水风险度进行评估,绘制了洪水风险图。结合评估结果展开了风暴潮风险分析系统的研究,探讨了系统设计的结构体系、关键模块和技术。该系统的建立为洪水风险图编制提供了快捷有效的途径,也为上海市沿海地区防洪减灾决策提供了科学依据。

With the help of GIS, an exploratory evaluation on flood risk induced by storm tide was carried out in the coastal area in Shanghai. Based on the coupling between dyke break flowing model and flood routing model, the maximum possible submerge range was drawn out synchronously, the spatial distribution of the submerge depth and other risk indexes were also sketched to express the spatial differences in the flood protection area. Then fuzzy math and overlay analysis were applied in the evaluation of flood risk and drawing of flood risk map. The storm tide induced flood risk analysis system was developed according to the evaluating results, the pivotal module and technique in the flood risk analysis system of storm tide were discussed, and the structure of the system for Shanghai was designed. The establishment of this system supplied convenient approach for the making of flood risk map and scientific base for the flood control and disaster alleviation policy decision of Shanghai＇s coastland.