联合火力打击中攻击机及时出动概率分析

Analysis of Attacker's Timely Turn-out Probability in Joint Fire Attack

对时敏目标的打击中,攻击机及时出动概率很大程度上决定了其任务完成概率。首先,给出了攻击机"及时出动"的含义,推导了其统计概率计算公式;然后,简要分析了协同式和一体化联合火力打击中攻击机的出动过程,得到了其出动时间的期望值和最大值;最后,基于攻击机出动时间与打击窗口的关系,计算了多种情况下攻击机及时出动的概率。研究结果对于攻击机遂行时敏目标打击任务具有一定的指导意义。

When the attacker attacks the time- critical targets, the timely turn- out probability is the most critical factor that influences the success rate. First, the timely turn -out operation is defined, and calculating formula for counting probability is derived. Secondly, the operation process of cooperative joint fire attack and attacker′s operation process in integrative operation are analysed ; the expected value and the maximum value of the turn - out time are gained. Finally, based on analysing the relationship between attacker′s turn- out time and attack window, the timely turn - out probabilities under various conditions are calculated. The result of this research is useful in carrying out operations of attacking the critical targets.