ENSO事件与中国东南沿海3月降水关系分析

Correlation between ENSO Event and Precipitation of March in Inshore Region of Southeast China

利用1951—2006年永安、赣州、厦门、梅州、汕头、曲江和河源7个代表站3月降水量资料,以及南方涛动指数(SOI)和北太平洋海温资料,分析了中国东南沿海3月降水的年际和年代际变化特征,及其与ENSO事件的关系。结果发现,东南沿海3月降水具有年际变化大和年代际变化明显的特征,与SOI、赤道东太平洋海温和西风漂流区海温存在显著相关。在前一年出现厄尔尼诺现象,北太平洋海温距平分布呈厄尔尼诺分布型,SOI偏低的情况下,东南沿海3月降水偏多;反之,前一年出现拉尼娜现象,北太平洋海温距平分布呈现拉尼娜分布型,SOI偏高时,东南沿海3月降水偏少。前期1月赤道东太平洋关键区海温和前期2月西风漂流区关键区海温的异常变化,对东南沿海3月降水具有很好的指示意义。当前期1月赤道东太平洋关键区海温偏高,前期2月西风漂流区关键区海温偏低时,东南沿海3月降水偏多;反之,东南沿海3月降水则偏少。

By using the precipitation data of March from 1951 to 2006 of Yong＇an, Ganzhou, Xiamen, Meizhou, Shantou, Qujiang and Heyuan, the Southern Oscillation Index （SOI）, and the sea surface temperature （SST） data of the North Pacific Ocean, the relationships between the interannual and interdecadal precipitation of March in the inshore region of Southeast China and ENSO event were analyzed. The results showed that the interannual and interdecadal variations of the precipitation in the inshore region of Southeast China were obvious, and they were closely related to SSTs in eastern equatorial Pacific and west wind drift region. More precipitation appeared in March in the inshore region of Southeast China once the E1 Nino phenomenon occurred in the previous year and the SOI was on the high side. On the contrary, as long as the La Nina phenomenon occurred in the previous year, there was less precipitation in March. The anomalies of SST of January in the key area of eastern Pacific Ocean and the SST of February in west wind drift region can indicate the precipitation of March in the inshore area of Southeast China. If the SST of January in the key area of east Pacific Ocean and the SST of February in west wind drift region are on the low side, the precipitation of March will be on the high side, and vice versa.