分导式多弹头的毁伤评估研究

The Kill Assessment of Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicle

分导式多弹头毁伤效果的评估结果,是作战运用的依据。针对目前国内缺乏用于多弹头毁伤评估的手段和方法,提出了理论计算和Monte-Carlo仿真进行多弹头导弹毁伤效果综合评估的思想。推导了导弹落点系统偏差、落点散布椭圆度和弹头威力对毁伤概率影响的数学表达式,并给出了采用Monte-Carlo方法的具体步骤;两种毁伤效果评估手段相互验证,取得了很好的效果;在各弹头落点散布参数差异较大或威力半径不尽相同的复杂情况下,采用Monte-Carlo仿真进行毁伤效果的评估是一个有效而实用的技术途径。

Different from single reentry vehicle missile, Multiple Independently -targetable Reentry Vehicle （MIRV） missile can attack different targets simultaneously, and its kill assessment needs to consider every sub -reentry vehicle. For different combinations of the system deviation and the random errors of the longitudinal and lateral dispersion of ballistic missile hit point and for the relationship with warhead lethality, the mathematical expressions about the kill probability are respectively given in this paper. The idea of kill assessment of MIRV using Monte - Carlo method and the actual simulation steps are proposed. The two assessment ways of theoretic calculation and simulation verify each other and give a good effect. Example shows that the Monte - Carlo simulation of kill probability is simple and reliable, and has good application prospects.