中国建设用地扩展的空间动态演变格局——基于EBI和EBIi的研究

Spatial Variation of Construction Land Expansion in China: Based on EBI and EBIi

研究目的:对21世纪初期中国建设用地扩展的总体空间动态演变格局、集聚中心和孤立点的空间转移路径以及建设用地扩展的局部空间差异进行探索。研究方法:经验贝叶斯修正的空间自相关指数(EBI、EBIi)和空间误差模型。研究结果:(1)总体上,建设用地扩展在全国范围内具有较好的空间结构性和空间关联性,呈现出显著的空间集聚模式;(2)集聚中心和孤立点的空间转移存在一定的规律性;(3)从局部看,建设用地扩展表现出十分明显的局部空间差异;(4)第二产业和非农业人口增长率对建设用地扩展具有强劲的推动作用。研究结论:忽视了地理位置因素的传统统计分析方法无法真正反映空间要素的动态演变过程,经验贝叶斯修正的空间自相关指数有效地避免了方差不稳定性,为中国建设用地扩展空间动态演变的定量分析提供了有力支撑。

The purpose of this study is to analyze the spatial variation of construction land expansion in China. Methods of spatial autocorrelation indicators adjusted by Empirical Bayes and Spatial Error Model were employed. The results indicate that the countrywide construction land expansion showed obvious spatial cluster pattern; the spatial transfer of clusters and outliers showed definite rules; the construction land expansion showed obvious local spatial disparity pattern; the growth rate of secondary industry and non-agricultural population were strong driving forces on the construction land expansion. In conclusion, the traditional approaches, in which each region is treated as independent ones, cannot tell the spatial variation of spatial items. The EBI and EBIi, which can avoid the variation instability effectively, are good methods to achieve quantitative analysis of the spatial variation of construction land expansion in China.