农民土地规模经营意愿影响因素实证研究——基于长江中下游区域的调查分析

An Empirical Study of Factors Influencing the Willingness of Peasants for Large—scale Land Management:An Analysis Based on Survey in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River

研究目的:确定农民是否有土地规模经营意愿;影响其规模经营意愿的因素有哪些。研究方法:访谈调查法、因果分析法和Multinomial Logistic方法。研究结果:有近40%的农民具有土地规模经营意愿,但其余部分农民并没有这方面欲望。研究结论:区域经济发展水平在很大程度上影响着当地农民的土地规模经营意愿;农业经营者老龄化现象是导致规模经营意愿下降的一个重要原因;农业比较收益低下是农民规模经营意愿低的最根本动因;就业和收入来源的多元化弱化了农民规模经营意愿;不断增加的农业生产流动资本投入成为激励农民规模经营意愿的重要因素。虽然相对开放的土地流转制度对农民规模经营意愿具有很大促进作用,但仍有相当一部分农民并不希望改变当前的土地规模。

The purpose of this research is to make sure whether peasants are willing to manage a large amount of land and what are the influencing factors. Methods employed include interviews, deduction and multinomial logistic regression. The results indicate that although nearly 40% of peasants have the will, most of others do not have it. Through empirical analysis, the following conclusions have been drawn. The economic level of a region, to a large extent, determines the local peasants＇ willingness for large-scale land management. The aging problem of the peasants living on agriculture is one important factor discouraging peasants to manage their land. The relative low income in agriculture is the fundamental factor of low willingness. Multiple choices of job and sources of income weaken the willingness of the peasants. Continuous increase of capital flows in agricultural production has become a main factor encouraging large-scale land management. The relatively open transfer system of land plays an important role in encouraging the peasants. However,there are still a significant number of peasants who do not wish to extend the size of the land they own.