日本资产价格泡沫发生机制研究

A Study on the Mechanism of Japan Asset Bubbles

资金和投资意愿是产生资产价格泡沫的充分必要条件。20世纪80年代后期,滞后的金融体制改革、歪曲的税制、日美贸易摩擦、削减赤字的财政再建计划、良好的经济状况和国家竞争力的整体上升使日本同时具备了资产价格泡沫发生的两个条件。借鉴日本的经验,通过财政、税收政策扩大市场上可投资资产的供给,同时降低预期的投资收益是防止和缓解我国发生资产价格泡沫的主要手段。

Investable capital funds and investing desire are the necessary and sufficient conditions for asset bubbles. These two conditions were satisfied in Japan in later 1980s, under the resonance of the lagged reforms in finanancial institutions, the distorted tax system, the trade conflicts with the U. S. , the financial restructuring plan characterized by cutting deficit, the booming domestic economy, and the increasing national competitive- ness. The Japanese lesson implies that China may prevent or alleviate the asset bubbles by increasing the supply of investable assets and by reducing the expected rate of retum on investment with careful financial and tax policies.